New Draft Lottery

This is an experimental page that models the proposed new draft lottery for the 2020-21 season announced on May 26.
Ordering is based on points percentage rather than points. This is to equalize for the different number of games played.
Teams in the bottom 7 positions have not qualified for the 2019-20 "playoffs" but teams 8-15 will participate in the play-in round to be held after the draft.
3 teams are selected in the first phase of the lottery for positions 1-3 in the draft, to be held on June 26.
If the 3 teams selected in the first phase are from the group of 7 non-qualifying teams, the lottery is complete. Draft positions 4-7 will be the remainder of the non-qualifying teams. Draft positions 8-15 will consist of the 8 losing teams from the play-in round in reverse points percentage order.
The identity of each losing team will not be known at draft lottery time so those teams are assigned a placeholder and identified as "A", "B", "C", "D", "E", "F", "G" and "H".
If any of the losing play-in teams ends up in positions 1-3 after the first phase of the lottery, a second phase of the lottery will be required after the completion of the play-in round. In this phase, each of the 8 losing teams from the play-in round will have an equal chance at the draft position(s) obtained in the first phase.
The lottery probabilities for each team have not changed.

Overall Probabilities

There are 2,730 possible output permutations from the draft lottery (15 x 14 x 13), each with its own probability of occurrence. This makes it very difficult to calculate the overall probabilities for each team. Our mathematical skills are not up to this challenge.
Instead, to compute the overall probabilites after the 3 lottery rounds, we run the draft lottery over 100,000 times and count the number of times each team ends up picking in a particular position. Brute force grinds the problem into dust!
Tap/click the button below to start the simulation. This may take a while depending on your machine and browser performance.
Highest probability position for a team is shown in green, lowest in red, others in blue.
Gray cells show impossible picking positions. Brown cells show draft results that will require a "Phase 2" lottery.
Values may differ slightly from the nominal values above. About 10,000,000 simulations are required to converge to the nominal values and you don't want to wait that long.
The data shows that the worst team is most likely to pick 4th with probability >50% and least likely to pick 3rd with a probability >14%! Did you expect that?