On Tuesday, February 12, 2002, new AMPAS president Frank Pierson and Marcia Gay Harden will announce the list of nominees for the 74rd annual Academy awards. The following column contains my predictions for all categories, save the short film categories for which I have absolutely no idea and would simply embarass myself (even more). Also, to my profound consternation, I'm substituting predictions on this year's Documentary Features for Animated Features, mostly because I've been hideously negligent in terms of paying attention to the category and am uncertain as to which films are even in the running. (For what it's worth, if they do qualify, I'd pick Startup.com, The Gleaners And I and Southern Comfort to score nominations, for starters.) [February 11th late note - okay, scratch that -- none of them made the cut-off. They didn't like Startup.com, my #3 film of 2001? What's wrong with these guys?! Ahem.]
| TRACK RECORD: |
(As an aside, I'm finding that the increasing scrutiny which this web site seems to have been receiving over its lifetime is affecting the way I approach the annual Oscar nomination announcement press conference; the pressure (perhaps self-imposed) to come up with an accurate slate of predictions is such that I've caught myself becoming more emotionally invested in getting correct predictions rather than rooting for achievements that I actually want to get nominated. Not nearly as much fun. Oh well.)
In almost all categories, I've listed two alternates, and in many categories have listed up to three additional entries -- the aim was to simply reference a selection of alternate achievements which stand a plausible shot at a nomination. Needless to say, in some categories I could've listed five or six additional candidates which might genuinely play spoiler roles, while in others I was probably stretching even to cite them as "Other possibilities". (I think I'm going to drop this feature one of these years -- I've spent an inordinate amount of time simply trying to come up with the five safeties in most of the categories this year.)
As ever, thanks to those who shared their own personal Oscar predictions; I appreciate the gesture and briefly skimmed most of them, but have not examined them too closely lest I'd later be charged of 'stealing' the picks of others.
Oh yes, the usual disclaimer: these are my predictions as to who will get nominated based upon various factors and developments, not who should receive Oscar nominations.
"Nobody knows anything." - William Goldman
"I've got a bad feeling about this." - Han Solo
"Deserve's got nothin' to do with it." - William Munny
"Your stupid minds! Stupid! Stupid!" - Eros from Plan 9
 A Beautiful
MindGosford ParkIn The BedroomThe Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The
RingMoulin Rouge
|
Alternates: Black Hawk Down, ShrekOther possibilities: Memento, Amélie, Mulholland Dr.
Voters: All AMPAS members with voting rights
I'm going with somewhat of an offbeat slate of Best Picturee nominee selections as most seem to have pegged Ridley Scott's Somalia-based war drama Black Hawk Down as a finalist. While the film's failure to score attention with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did not help its chances, it's more than overcome this early stumble via the resultant attention from a very strong wide domestic roll-out in mid-January, topping the box office charts for three consecutive weeks during the stretch drive of awards season. Aside from being a powerful commercial performer, Black Hawk Down has also scored generally decent critical assessments -- many have (arguably offhandedly) cited it as the best Jerry Bruckheimer film ever -- and there's also a prevailing sentiment amongst some pundits that the mood of rampant patriotism/jingoism in the United States over the past few months will help drive the military film towards a Best Picture nomination. While there are many factors in favor of a possible Black Hawk Down Best Picture nomination, I wasn't able to squeeze it onto my list and have it down as a close sixth.
Ron Howard's A Beautiful Mind and Peter Jackson's The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring are both locks, of course, having been popular and critical hits that have performed strongly in all the pre-Oscar ceremonies -- they've both racked up PGA and DGA nominations, with one taking the AFI Movie Of The Year prize and the other picking up the Golden Globe statuette -- but I wouldn't go so far as to describe In The Bedroom and Moulin Rouge as sure things. Both are likely to be on the final list, to be sure -- I'd think In The Bedroom's standing is slightly more firm than the Luhrmann madcap musical -- but neither strike me as heading into the pivotal Tuesday with the ironclad qualifications and momentum that would effectively guarantee a Best Picture nomination as per Mind and Rings.
After Miramax's wide slate of potential Oscar films thinned -- The Shipping News didn't exactly catch fire to the degree that they'd hoped or expected -- they've understandably turned their marketing might onto Todd Field's intimate domestic drama, plastering FYC advertisements in trade magazines and key newspapers, arranging for high-visibility appearances for the film's stars, and effectively stirring up attention for the picture. Several years ago, Oscar winner Jessica Yu memorably quipped "You know when you've entered new territory when your dress costs more than your film." This line comes to mind with In The Bedroom, as Miramax has surely spent more promoting the film and campaigning for an Oscar bid than they paid to acquire it at last year's Sundance Film Festival; marketing expenses have undoubtedly also exceeded actual production costs. This does seem to have been money well spent, as the modest film has quietly seeped into the public consciousness and is about to crack $20 million domestic; multiple key Oscar nominations might drive the film north of $30 million. While not a lock, I think In The Bedroom has a good chance to receive a Best Picture nomination -- it's a well-acted, accessible drama with a somber tone and sense of gravity that can be construed as commendable seriousness.
It's still somewhat bizarre to consider the zany Moulin Rouge as a potential Best Picture nominee, but indications persist that it'll make the final five. The film has picked up much momentum in the wake of the Golden Globes ceremony, where it snared trophies for Best Picture - Musical/Comedy and for its female star Nicole Kidman, and has successfully scored well with the various guilds -- nominations from the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, as well as a cite from the Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble Cast. Fox has been thoroughly behind Moulin Rouge's Oscar bid -- this has been arguably the most successful Academy Awards campaign of the season, so far -- the trade advertisements have been stunning, and clearly little expense has been spared to build a fever pitch around the film. The garish Moulin Rouge is hardly a conventional Best Picture nominee type -- it's decidedly frenetic, unabashed and daring, whereas the normal manner in which to court Oscar has been the reserved, subdued and predictable approach (as per, say, A Beautiful Mind), and as such it certainly succeeds in alienating a lot of viewers (my understanding is that Moulin Rouge isn't much of an internet fave), but on the other hand the film is one which inspires passionate advocacy among its supporters. Again, not a lock, but I feel things are looking good for the eye-popping Luhrmann film.
Many will be undoubtedly appalled that I replaced Black Hawk Down with Gosford Park, particularly since the film hasn't been racking up many pre-Oscar indicators -- no PGA nomination, the infamous Altman omission with the Directors Guild, no AFI nomination, losing out Best Picture - Musical/Comedy to Moulin Rouge at the Globes -- but my initial reaction upon seeing the film was this was definitely an Oscar-type picture, and I'm sticking to my guns. (To be honest, I'd actually be hardpressed to determine between Moulin Rouge and Gosford Park as to my #4 pick.) The film's an accessible entertainment, well-acted by its impressive collection of talents, it's a classy production, and given the numerous Anglophiles in the Academy, it's certainly worth noting that the stellar British cast will probably generate added appreciation for the film. I realize I'm going against the grain in citing Gosford Park, but it strikes me as the stately sort that AMPAS voters will support in numbers sufficient to make the final five.
DreamWorks has defiantly been aggressively campaigning for Shrek to score a Best Picture nomination in spite of this year's introduction of a new Animated Feature category. I commend them for refusing to rest on their laurels and accept the film's relegation into the ghettoized category only -- as a rule of thumb, animated pictures should be given due consideration in the Best Picture category -- but the problematic sentiment that Shrek will undoubtedly receive an Oscar nomination in the Animated Feature category and hence need not be supported in the Picture category may prove to be too much of an obstacle for the film's Oscar campaign to overcome. While the complexity of Memento's narrative structure caused studio acquisition buyers to shun the film and prompted Newmarket to effectively self-distribute it, I would not be terribly surprised if this independent film defied the odds and cracked the Best Picture finalists; the exceptional word-of-mouth on Christopher Nolan's film is most intriguing. Much as I'd like, I can't dismiss the possibility that the Amélie's whimsy and "charm" may have won over enough voters to crack the final five, but after a strong early run, Mulholland Dr. seems to have run out of steam; its support from critics has not been matched by industry personnel to date, and it seems unlikely that the unorthodox picture will make the Tuesday shortlist.
Russell
Crowe, A Beautiful MindSean
Penn, I Am Sam Billy Bob
Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't ThereDenzel Washington, Training DayTom Wilkinson, In The Bedroom
|
Alternates:Other possibilities: Ewan McGregor, Moulin Rouge; Kevin Spacey, The Shipping News; Kevin Kline, Life As A House
Voters: AMPAS Actors Branch members
Russell Crowe is obviously on track to score his third consecutive Best Actor Oscar nomination (he'd be the first since William Hurt racked up nominations for Kiss Of The Spider Woman, Children Of A Lesser God and Broadcast News in the mid-1980s) for his portrayal of a schizophrenic mathematician in Ron Howard's uplifting inspirational drama A Beautiful Mind, with AFI Actor of the Year Denzel Washington a lock for his career fourth Best Actor nomination for his against-type Training Day performance.
At this point, things begin to get a little dicey. Tom Wilkinson carried the well-liked In The Bedroom and I consider his performance to be the film's best and the bedrock on which the picture lies; I'm interpreting his Screen Actors Guild nomination to be a promising sign that he's on his way to an Oscar mention for his solid performance. (As an aside, I heartily recommend the entertaining and interesting Newsweek roundtable article which features Wilkinson, Naomi Watts, Nicole Kidman, Will Smith and others discussing their films and the state of the acting world. As of this writing, I believe it's still up on the Newsweek website -- do check it out at some point.)
I consider the last two spots in the Best Actor category to be very malleable. I'd like to see Moulin Rouge's Ewan McGregor make the cut, but attention for his performance in the picture has been largely diverted to Nicole Kidman's work, he failed to take the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Musical/Comedy, and he didn't receive a Screen Actors Guild nomination. If there's a major Moulin Rouge nomination landslide, McGregor could be the beneficiary, but I consider his chances to be rather remote.
Despite the Golden Globe victory, the AFI Featured Actor of the Year prize (some have hypothesized that this curious classification might result in problematic categorization for Academy members, but I feel that he'll continue to receive the bulk of his support in the Best Actor category), and the National Society of Film Critics' Best Actor prize, I remain cool about Gene Hackman's chances. The Royal Tenenbaums strikes me as much more of a showcase for Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson's writing and Anderson's deadpan directorial style than for the actors, regardless of the quirky characters they're given to play, and I find it an uphill battle to see Academy members go for it. (Hey, they didn't bite with Rushmore's Bill Murray.) Perhaps personal bias also plays a role in my pick here -- I wasn't particularly impressed with Hackman's performance (his NSFC win prompted much eyebrow-raising and reluctant sighs at my abode), and I just seem to be out of tune with the consensus in terms of performances in Wes Anderson films; while everyone raved about Bill Murray in Rushmore, I dug Jason Schwartzman's performance instead, and Hackman's work in The Royal Tenenbaums hardly excited me -- the only performance in the latest Anderson which modestly caught my eye was Gwyneth Paltrow's charmingly morose one.
Many have inked down Will Smith's depiction of Ali as a surefire lock and the musing has begun about the possibility of three African-American actors receiving lead Academy Award nominations in the same year for the first time since Paul Winfield, Cicely Tyson and Diana Ross scored in February 1973 for Sounder and Lady Sings The Blues. It's definitely a possiblity -- Smith is a well-liked personality, and Ali received a lot of attention upon its bow into the marketplace in late December -- but I'm betting against him scoring his first Oscar nomination for the role in the Michael Mann film. While the picture received middling critical assessments -- I was startled to learn that some critics were wowed by the opening montage cross-cutting Clay's championship victory over Sonny Liston with a Sam Cooke nightclub performance -- it generally received poor marks from moviegoers (after a powerful opening week its figures plummeted dramatically) and I don't feel that the film is sufficiently emotionally satisfying to win over large numbers of Academy members; it's more of a cold cerebral exercise than a cathartic, superficially enjoyable one. Moreover, while Smith was reasonably successful in impersonating several aspects of the legendary pugilist -- in some instances uncannily so -- the film's refusal to provide overt insight into the character (Chicago critic Jonathan Lewis quipped "The ads for Ali trumpeted 'Forget What You Know', then proceeded to tell us everything we already knew about Muhammed Ali") and inability to, as opined by Variety's Todd McCarthy, "get inside Ali's head to suggest what drove the man, what made him tick", may adversely affect the perception of his acting performance outside of the ringwork and impressions. I found Smith's attempts at pensiveness and introspection to be unconvincing, and apparently others were similarly unimpressed with his work judging by Smith's failure to receive a Screen Actors Guild nomination. Nevertheless, he's a popular and charismatic performer, and it would not make for much of a surprise should he make the cut for his high-profile performance.
I picked Billy Bob Thornton to nab a nomination for The Man Who Wasn't There (a terrific bit of casting), although the possibility that his Monster's Ball support might eat into his base and knock him off the path is worth considering. With three previous Oscar nominations to his name (two as a performer), he's well-liked by the Academy and his stoic performance in the Coen Brothers film was grounded and centered, anchoring the quirky noir. His failure to score a SAG nomination is unsettling, but his Golden Globe nomination is a reassuring sign. By no means a lock, though.
I assigned the final Best Actor slot to Sean Penn for I Am Sam. Yes, the mere mention of the film makes my skin crawl, but it's a gimmicky performance of an afflicted character, and one should take into account the substantial amount of respect for Penn amongst his peers. I suspect that his Screen Actors Guild nomination is indicative of support amongst thesps which carries into the rarified air of the elite AMPAS Actors Branch, and am braced for him to receive a nomination for the Jessie Nelson mawk-fest.
As unlikely as it may be, I'd like to see Guy Pearce receive Academy attention for his performance in Memento; I now regret having not listed him in the "Other possiblities" section above.
| Halle Berry, Monster's
BallJudi Dench,
IrisNicole Kidman,
The OthersSissy Spacek, In The
BedroomTilda Swinton,
The Deep End |
Alternates:Other possibilities: Naomi Watts, Mulholland Dr.; Audrey Tautou, Amélie; Thora Birch, Ghost World
In an ideal world: Charlotte Rampling, Under The Sand
Voters: AMPAS Actors Branch members
Yes, I said The Others. I realize that I'm going out on a limb by picking Kidman's nomination to be with the Alejandro Amenábar ghost picture rather than the red-hot Baz Luhrmann musical -- not to mention taking a chance by picking Kidman at all given the danger of a split-vote scenario -- and that I'm probably the only one picking her for The Others (which in itself is a bad sign for me; if everyone's thinking about her exclusively for Moulin Rouge, it follows that Academy voters are probably operating with the same mindset), but nevertheless I'm going take my chances. Maybe it's because I still think that voters haven't forgotten about word-of-mouth phenomenon The Others despite all the current hoopla about Moulin Rouge. Maybe it's because Kidman's role in The Others was more dominant and substantive (it's really one of the biggest parts afforded to an actress in a mainstream studio-backed film this year). Maybe it's because of the damn Miramax pop-up ads in support of her work that come up every time I visit The Hollywood Reporter web site. Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part (I liked both her performances and would have no problem with her getting a nomination for either, but would prefer The Others). Whatever the case may be, I'm going to defy common wisdom, stick my neck out and go with Kidman getting nominated for her work in The Others. I might be tossing an easy pick out the window, but so be it; sometimes one just has to go with one's gut.
Sissy Spacek is, of course, a lock for In The Bedroom, and Halle Berry's Monster's Ball performance has attained so much attention that I fully expect her to make the shortlist on Tuesday. Judi Dench's Iris turn seems to be hot on their tails and a very probable finalist. The remaining two spots are the ones which seem to be open for contention; I've allotted one of them to a Nicole Kidman performance (if it's not one, I think it'll be the other), and have decided to complete my list by citing Tilda Swinton for her performance as a desperate mother in the drama The Deep End. I'm not sure how conventional wisdom had Swinton go from a surefire lock in December to an obscure longshot come late January, but I feel that she'll make the finals come Tuesday. While she failed to score a Screen Actors Guild nomination, she did score a Golden Globe nomination, it's a great part -- the film is essentially a vehicle for her character -- which I expect fellow actors will appreciate, and Fox Searchlight has been steadily campaigning on behalf of her performance for months now. Admittedly, the Scottish actress is not as high-wattage of a star as some of her competitors, but I think she stands a reasonable shot at nabbing an Academy Award nomination.
If not, SAG nominee Renée Zellweger has a shot at her first Oscar nomination. She's a much better actress than I initially gave her credit for -- her acclaimed turn in Jerry Maguire left me indifferent, but she more than held her own against La Streep in One True Thing and was just fine in Nurse Betty. Bridget Jones's Diary is an inconsequential fluffy romantic comedy, which traditionally hasn't been a source for many acting nominations, but Zellweger's Golden Globe and SAG nominations might spell an upcoming Oscar mention. (I've mentioned this in the past, but for the record, I don't believe in the magic formulas bandied about that suggest that there's a combination of guild nominations which lead to surefire Oscar nominations. I continue to think that the intelligent approach would be to interpret what the guild nominations imply rather than taking them as some sort of absolute.)
While Naomi Watts of Mulholland Dr. fame failed to receive either a Golden Globe or SAG nomination -- unlike Zellweger, she did get an AFI nomination -- I do not discount her chances at all and consider her to be a serious contender for a Best Actress Academy Award nomination. Her work in the David Lynch film has netted her a lot of attention and effectively positioned her as a breakout star -- she's already been fortuitously labelled Female Star of Tomorrow for the upcoming ShoWest convention -- and actors are sure to take note of her performance; the bulk of Mulholland Dr.'s buzz seems to be centered around her. A Watts Oscar nomination should not come as a surprise, and it would be fascinating should she manage to score an Academy mention while childhood friend Kidman is omitted from the short list for either of her higher-profile turns.
Amélie starlet Audrey Tautou might sneak into the final five if the film is more beloved by AMPAS members than I either expect or hope, but at this point I'd call her a longshot. Ditto for Thora Birch from Ghost World, Stockard Channing for The Business Of Strangers (which never really took off), and the others.
| Jim Broadbent, IrisSteve Buscemi, Ghost WorldBen Kingsley, Sexy BeastIan McKellen, The Lord Of The Rings: The
Fellowship Of The RingJon
Voight, Ali |
Alternates: Tony Shaloub, The Man Who Wasn't There; Hayden Christensen, Life As A HouseOther possibilities: Jude Law, A.I. Artificial Intelligence; Eddie Murphy, Shrek; Carl Reiner, Ocean's Eleven
Voters: AMPAS Actors Branch members
I can't think of a year in which I was so indifferent about an entire acting category as I am with this year's Best Supporting Actor slate. Virtually none of the performances by the leading contenders have excited me, and I've been finding it difficult to muster any interest in drawing up even a cursory list of nominees.
The category's definite locks are Ben Kingsley for his against-type performance as a brutal gangster in Sexy Beast and Jim Broadbent's Golden Globe-winning performance in Iris. There is a minor possibility that Broadbent might draw support from his turn as Zidler in Moulin Rouge, thereby eroding his base of support for the Eyre film, but this is unlikely. It should make for an interesting test for the Academy producers to find a good clip of Kingsley's serpentine performance in the Glazer film that can be aired without being bleeped enough to seem like an excerpt from a David Mamet picture; I suggest the airplane scene.
Save for these two, the category seems to be largely up for grabs, although a few performers have stumbled into leading contender status. Jon Voight has (inexplicably, in my opinion) been getting great reviews for his imitation/portrayal of legendary sportscaster Howard Cosell in Ali and while Michael Mann's film has been an underperformer, the veteran actor might have a chance at his fourth career Oscar nomination and his first since Runaway Train. Voight received a Golden Globe nomination for his performance, but failed to recieve an AFI nomination and, more troublingly, a mention from the Screen Actors Guild, so it's difficult to say whether there's enough support amongst his peers to muster up enough votes for an Academy Award nomination. (Then again, if not him, who?)
The mixed signals continue with The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring' Ian McKellen, who mustered a Screen Actors Guild nomination but failed to secure a Golden Globe or AFI cite for his performance as wizard Gandalf. Nevertheless, I think he's in a reasonably good position to convert his work in the Jackson odyssey into a second career Academy Award nomination. The Lord Of The Rings has become such a monstrous hit that McKellen's performance will be seen by a large bloc of voters, and the veteran Shakespearean actor has been highly-visible over the past few months stumping for the picture and being typically gracious and accomodating. (Few actors make as good an ambassador for their films as Sir McKellen.) There's also the train of thought which suggests that a picture which is bound to receive as many Oscar nominations as The Lord Of The Rings seems to be will invariably score at least one performance nomination; I don't necessarily agree, but out of the ensemble cast, it's clearly McKellen who's most likely to score Academy attention.
I was stuck on whom to select for my fifth pick in the Supporting Actor category -- I don't think A.I. Artificial Intelligence was appreciated enough to lead Jude Law towards a second Academy Award nomination (then again, I didn't count on him to nail that The Talented Mr. Ripley nomination either); despite his Golden Globe and SAG nominations, I'm still finding it difficult to truly buy into Hayden Christensen as an prospective Oscar nominee for Life As A House (this might be my own personal blind spot); I'd be pleasantly surprised if Ethan Hawke mustered a corresponding Academy Award cite to go along with his SAG mention for Training Day, but I sincerely doubt it -- so I've went with Ghost World's Steve Buscemi. (For some reason, though, I'm having trouble shaking the vision of a Tony Shaloub clip from The Man Who Wasn't There being aired on a hypothetical Academy Awards broadcast.) Buscemi failed to get a SAG nomination, but he was cited by the HFPA and the AFI, is a recognizable character actor, and despite Ghost World's relatively low profile, he's received enough attention that a career first Oscar nomination may be in reach, particularly in this thin field. I hate to even bring it up as it technically shouldn't be a factor, but the stories about his volunteer work as an ex-fireman in the wake of the World Trade Center disaster may also bring him goodwill support from touched voters.
| Jennifer Connelly, A
Beautiful MindHelen Mirren,
Gosford ParkMaggie Smith,
Gosford ParkMarisa Tomei,
In The BedroomKate Winslet,
Iris |
Alternates: Cameron Diaz, Vanilla Sky; Judi Dench, The Shipping NewsOther possibilities: Cate Blanchett, Bandits; Emily Watson, Gosford Park; Frances O'Connor, A.I. Artificial Intelligence
Voters: AMPAS Actors Branch members
AFI and Golden Globe winner Jennifer Connelly, who's also nominated for a SAG prize, is a certain lock for a Supporting Actress Oscar nomination for her performance in Ron Howard's A Beautiful Mind. While a few have suggested that her 'inadvertant' classification as a lead performer for the benefit of the Screen Actors Guild awards may prove to be confusing for Academy Members, I can't see this being the case -- you can definitely chisel her name down as an upcoming nominee in stone.
I'm also extremely confident about Marisa Tomei's Oscar prospects for In The Bedroom, and have been surprised to hear that some prognosticators consider her chances to be somewhat iffy. I think she should be a lock -- it's a solid performance in a highly-scrutinized, well-liked film targetted for major Oscar attention, and Tomei has been campaigning hard for a potential second career Oscar nomination; I'm not sure any other actor has been quite so busy on the circuit over the past month as Tomei in pursuit of her Academy Awards bid. I'd be surprised if she didn't make the cut.
I suggested back in Oscar Column #03 that Gosford Park might have the potential to tie up multiple Supporting Actress spots, and I continue to think that this is the case. Helen Mirren has been getting much of the attention for her performance in the Altman film -- she's scored a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe mention from the HFPA -- and should be good to go, but I also find it difficult to imagine that Maggie Smith won't be also netting another Oscar nomination to her personal totals for her scene-stealing turn; it strikes me as the sort of delicious role that fellow actors will eat up. Smith did fail to receive a SAG nomination, picking up only a mention from the HFPA, and recent scene-stealers have been left out in the past (for example, Rupert Everett's popular performance from My Best Friend's Wedding), but I'm confident about her chances. One obstacle worth mentioning that both Mirren and Smith face is that the potential for divided support from Gosford Park supporters (between them, as well as for many other female actors in the ensemble cast) may knock eat away at their totals, allowing another actress or two to slip in front of them under the wire, but I'm virtually positive that one of the Gosford Park ladies (and reasonably confident that both) will come away from Tuesday with Oscar nominations.
To complete the category, I've gone with perennial Oscar bait actress Kate Winslet for her turn in Iris, although Vanilla Sky's Cameron Diaz has nabbed nominations from the Screen Actors Guild, the Golden Globes, and the American Film Institute. To be honest, I'm pretty perplexed about this level of support behind Diaz's performance (Winslet was limited to a Golden Globe mention), as her role did not strike me as overly demanding -- nor did Najwa Nimri's role in the superior original, for that matter; when award talk for Diaz first started, I'd wondered whether Cameron Crowe had beefed the part up -- and I didn't find Diaz to be remarkable or even particularly good in the film. She's a good actress, but she's done much better work elsewhere.
The Shipping News' Judi Dench should also be considered a possibility -- she's highly-respected and scored a SAG nomination -- and Cate Blanchett has emerged as a genuine possibility for her performance in the comic romp Bandits, having come away with AFI, Golden Globe and SAG nominations. I question how much MGM has put into a campaign for her, but obviously it's been successful to date, and some feel that Blanchett's large body of work for 2001 will earn her a spot on the short list. (It's worth noting that she could potentially get AMPAS consideration for The Man Who Cried, The Shipping News and The Lord Of The Rings, thereby splitting her vote.)
Despite the SAG nomination, I just don't see I Am Sam tyke Dakota Fanning walking off with an Academy Award nomination; even after taking into account her acknowledgement from guild members, I'd still consider an Oscar mention to be a major shocker.
| Robert Altman, Gosford ParkRon Howard, A Beautiful MindPeter Jackson, The Lord Of The Rings: The
Fellowship Of The RingBaz
Luhrmann, Moulin RougeRidley
Scott, Black Hawk Down |
Alternates:Other possibilities: Jean-Pierre Jeunet, Amélie; Michael Mann, Ali; Todd Field, In The Bedroom
Voters: AMPAS Directors Branch members
Now this was a tough category. I deliberated on the Best Director category for quite some time, shuffling and reshuffling my picks, and I regret that I didn't have room to mention DGA nominee Memento director Christopher Nolan and Globe-nominated A.I. Artificial Intelligence director Steven Spielberg, both of whom I also consider to be viable possibilities along with the ten filmmakers listed above.
The closest thing this category has to a lock is probably Peter Jackson for his direction of the massive first installment of the epic The Lord Of The Rings trilogy, The Fellowship Of The Ring. A Beautiful Mind is certain to score big at Tuesday's announcement and director Ron Howard is likely to be among the nominees, but I'd like to raise the distinct possibility that, as per 1996 and Apollo 13, he might actually be left out of the running altogether, particularly given the volume of competition he faces. It's an unlikely scenario -- I'm still picking him to be nominated -- but I do sense that his work is not nearly as appreciated by the AMPAS Directors Branch as it is by the public at large. (I might simply be superimposing my ambivalence about Howard's anonymous, workmanlike direction onto the group, though.)
Many quickly scratched off Robert Altman's name from their Oscar prediction lists after the veteran helmer shockingly failed to receive a DGA nomination for his direction of Gosford Park, but despite the omission, I'm still quite confident that he'll get an Academy Award nomination. His track record with the AMPAS Directors Branch is solid -- he's already received four nominations during his illustrious career (interestingly, he's never received a competitive DGA nomination) -- and I don't expect that he'll be forced off Tuesday's Oscar shortlist. (What with the Academy's apparent lack of enthusiasm for Ron Howard, it's entirely possible that Altman might wind up being the odds-on favourite to win the Oscar should he get past the qualifying round.)
Baz Luhrmann's fingerprints are all over Moulin Rouge; it's definitely a film in which his distinct vision plainly came through, and his DGA nomination and Golden Globe nominations seem to position him for a good run at an Oscar nomination. I'm less certain about his chances than the aforementioned three directors, as I am with Ridley Scott, who was nominated last year for Gladiator and might repeat again with Black Hawk Down. A DGA and AFI nominee recipient, his latter 2001 entry (let's try to forget about Hannibal, shall we?) is certainly more of a directorial piece than an acting showcase, and his orchestration of the various battle sequences might earn him enough support to crack the final five.
I was waffling for the longest time on Mulholland Dr. director David Lynch, who seems to have the sort of necessary respect from the Academy's Director's Branch to be able to take a shot an Oscar nomination, but I couldn't find room to put him on my prediction list. He's certainly a most viable possibility for his critically-acclaimed TV-pilot-turned-feature-film, and (arguably) aside from actress Naomi Watts, Lynch might stand the best chance of anyone associated with the film to score an Oscar nomination. Do not be surprised if he makes the quintet of nominees. Joel (and Ethan) Coen is also an Oscar possibility for their idiosyncratic version of film noir in The Man Who Wasn't There, and Jean-Pierre Jeunet's quirky touches and fancifully stylized imagining of Paris in Amélie demand serious consideration. Michael Mann's direction of Ali was probably the strongest facet of the film; he's a bit of a longshot but should be watched. On the other hand, despite the acclaim for his film and the AFI nomination, I'm pretty dubious about Todd Field winning over enough of the tough, exclusive AMPAS Directors Branch membership and scoring an Oscar nomination for his first turn behind the camera for In The Bedroom; I expect that there will be a fairly significant discrepancy between the amount of support his film gets and the pledges that Field personally receives, due more to cronyism than any overtly negative reflection upon his work.
| Monsters, Inc.ShrekWaking Life |
Alternates:Other possibilities: Osmosis Jones, The Trumpet Of The Swan, Vampire Hunter D: Bloodlust
Monsters, Inc. and Shrek are obvious locks. As for the third slot, well, are you going to go with one of the biggest box-office bombs in movie history (Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within), another commercial dud of a summer release (Osmosis Jones), one of several obscure animated films with little promotional muscle (The Prince Of Light, Marco Polo et al.), or a critically-acclaimed pseudo-intellectual arthouse hit in Waking Life? Only Paramount's Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius poses a threat, mostly because its very strong commercial performance (closing in on $80 million domestic) makes it a viable player.
| A.I. Artificial Intelligence: Rick CarterHarry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone:
Stuart CraigThe Lord Of The
Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring: Grant MajorMoulin Rouge: Catherine MartinThe Man Who Wasn't There: Dennis
Gassner |
Alternates:Other possibilities: The Shipping News: David Gropman; The Others: Benjamin Fernandez;
Voters: AMPAS Art Directors Branch members, excluding Costume Designers
| Roger Deakins, The Man Who Wasn't
ThereJanusz Kaminski,
A.I. Artificial IntelligenceAndrew Lesnie, The Lord Of The Rings: The
Fellowship Of The RingDon
McAlpine, Moulin RougeJohn Schwartzman, Pearl Harbor |
Alternates:Other possibilities: Roger Deakins, A Beautiful Mind;
Voters: AMPAS Cinematographers Branch members
| Gosford
Park: Jenny BeavanHarry
Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone: Judianna MakovskyThe Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The
Ring: Ngila DicksonMoulin
Rouge: Catherine Martin and Angus StrathiePlanet Of The Apes: Colleen Atwood
|
Alternates: Hedwig And The Angry Inch: Arianne Phillips; A.I. Artificial Intelligence: Bob RingwoodOther possibilities: The Man Who Wasn't There: Mary Zophres; Iris: Ruth Myers; Mulholland Dr.: Amy Stofsky, Durinda Wood
Voters: Costume Design members of AMPAS Art Directors Branch members
|
A Beautiful Mind: Mike Hill, Dan
HanleyBlack Hawk Down: Pietro
ScaliaThe Lord Of The Rings: The
Fellowship Of The Ring: John GilbertMemento: Dody DornMoulin Rouge: Jill Bilcock |
Alternates: Gosford Park: Tim Squyres; Shrek: Sim Evan JonesOther possibilities: Amélie: Hervé Schneid; Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone: Richard Francis-Bruce; A.I. Artificial Intelligence: Michael Kahn
Voters: AMPAS Film Editors Branch members
| AmélieAtanarjuat (The Fast Runner)Italian For BeginnersNo Man's LandThe Son's Room |
Alternates:Other possibilities:
I will bet you $10 000 this will not be nominated: In Praise Of Love
Voters: AMPAS Foreign Language Film Award Branch members
| Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's StoneThe Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The
RingPlanet Of The
Apes |
Alternates: Hannibal, A.I. Artificial IntelligenceOther possibilities:
Voters: AMPAS Makeup Award Nominating Committee
| A.I. Artificial Intelligence: John
WilliamsA Beautiful Mind:
James HornerThe Lord Of The
Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring: Howard ShoreMulholland Dr.: Angelo BadalamentiPearl Harbor: Hans Zimmer
|
Alternates: Amélie: Yann Tiersen; Gosford Park: Patrick DoyleOther possibilities: Black Hawk Down: Hans Zimmer; Shrek: Harry Gregson-Williams & John Powell; The Shipping News: Christopher Young
Voters: AMPAS Music Branch members
| "All
Love Can Be", A Beautiful Mind"May It Be", The Lord Of The Rings: The
Fellowship Of The Ring"There
You'll Be", Pearl Harbor"Until...", Kate & Leopold"Vanilla Sky", Vanilla Sky
|
Alternates:Other possibilities: "I Fall Apart", Vanilla Sky; "Trouble Every Day", Trouble Every Day; "Where The Dream Takes You", Atlantis: The Lost Empire
Voters: AMPAS Music Branch members
| A.I. Artificial IntelligenceBlack Hawk DownThe Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The
RingMoulin RougePearl Harbor
|
Alternates: The Fast And The Furious; The OthersOther possibilities: Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone; Shrek; A Beautiful Mind
Voters: AMPAS Sound Branch members
|
Black Hawk DownThe Fast And The FuriousThe Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of
The Ring |
Alternates:Other possibilities:
Voters: AMPAS Sound Editing Award Committee
|
A.I. Artificial IntelligenceThe Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of
The RingPearl Harbor
|
Alternates: Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone, Black Hawk DownOther possibilities: Jurassic Park III, The Fast And The Furious, Cats And Dogs
Voters: AMPAS Visual Effects Nominating Committee
|
Gosford Park: Julian FellowesThe Man Who Wasn’t There: Joel &
Ethan CoenMemento: Christopher
NolanMonster's Ball: Milo
Addica & Will RokosThe
Others: Alejandro Amenábar |
Alternates: Moulin Rouge: Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce;Other possibilities:
Voters: AMPAS Writers Branch members
| A
Beautiful Mind: Akiva GoldsmanBlack Hawk Down: Ken NolanGhost World: Daniel Clowes & Terry
ZwigoffIn The Bedroom: Rob
Festinger & Todd FieldThe Lord Of
The Rings: Fran Walsh & Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson
|
Alternates: Bridget Jones's Diary: Helen Fielding and Andrew Davies and Richard Curtis; Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone: Steve KlovesOther possibilities:
| Predicted Academy Award Nominee Leaders | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||