Alex Fung's Page > Film Columns/Essays > Oscar Columns for the 74th Annual Academy Awards > Column #05 (2001/01/17)

Alex's Oscar Column #05 for the 74rd Annual Academy Awards

By ALEX FUNG
Last updated: 2002/01/17

The Oscar picture, hopelessly muddled about a month ago, has dramatically crystallized over the past two weeks into an apparent series of head-to-head battles -- The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring vs. A Beautiful Mind, Russell Crowe versus Denzel Washington, Sissy Spacek against ... well, hopefully somebody. A number of key developments have unfolded since the last column -- all of the major critics groups have weighed in with their year-end winners save for the perpetually-tardy Chicago Film Critics Association, the debut of The Awards Ceremony Whose Winners Weren't There (also known as the AFI Awards), the Independent Spirit nominee announcement, a narrowing of the field in specific Academy technical categories, and the first trickling of guild award nominees -- but at the urging of some reader[s], instead of taking the time to tackle everything in one comprehensive, gargantuan column, I'm going to split it into multiple articles, postponing commentary on that front to the next column in order to address time-sensitive matters in this article (particularly the imminent Golden Globes this coming Sunday) and get this one out the door. The current plan is that the next column will go up this weekend (hopefully before the Globes).

The Hills Have Eyes

Before tackling Golden Globe winner predictions, a few recent developments are probably worth noting.

In Oscar Column #3, I expressed my disasgreement with Universal Focus' decision to promote Mulholland Dr.'s Naomi Watts as a candidate for Best Supporting Actress; based on the amount of screen time she has in the Lynch picture and the pivotal role her character(s) play in the story, I felt that her rightful classification would be as a Best Actress possibility. Judging by the howls of outrage and disbelief in many letters I've received on this topic, it appears many of you agree. For example:

How in the world can anyone justify promoting Naomi Watts's great performance as anything but a starring role? Who is she "supporting"? Justin Theroux? Ann Miller? The idea is ridiculous. So is the idiotic possibility that she may not be nominated at all for this performance that blows all the competition away. The current poll of critics by the Village Voice tells the tale as succinctly as possible. In the category of lead performance, which is gender-blind, Watts is light years ahead of her nearest competitor (Charlotte Rampling). If Watts fails to be nominated--and in the Best Actress category--this will be the all-time Oscar slight.

- Bill Weeden

The questionable promotion of Watts as a Supporting Actress candidate has also caused confusion among some critics groups -- while the New York, Los Angeles, and Boston organizations, as well as the National Society of Film Critics, correctly chose to simply disregard Universal Focus' suggestion and voted for Watts in their respective lead actress categories anyway, the San Diego Film Critics Circle tried to strattle the fence, eventually awarding her their Supporting Actress prize only after she failed to best Ghost World's Thora Birch and Charlotte Gray's Cate Blanchett in the Best Actress category, while the Las Vegas critics (all five of them) adhered to the directive and cited Watts in their Supporting Actress category. Those avidly following Naomi Watts' fortunes on the Oscar barometer will be pleased to know that as of the new year, Universal Focus seems to have had an abrupt change of heart and is now pushing the Aussie actress as a Best Actress candidate for Mulholland Dr. As she has shaped up as a serious possibility, this midstream reclassification potentially has major implications on the Oscar races in both the lead and supporting actress categories.

In Oscar Column #4, I noted: "To help her Oscar bid, Nicole Kidman ought to really make plans to at least attend the Golden Globes ceremony; she's reportedly going to be on the set of Lars von Trier's Dogville and does not expect to make an appearance at the dinner." Reports now indicate that she has arranged to fly in from the shoot of the von Trier picture to attend the Sunday event. From a strategic perspective, this is a solid move.

Nicole's Choice?

On the Kidman front, has her Moulin Rouge versus The Others quandary been definitively resolved? In the previous Oscar column, I touched upon her dilemma of having turning in nomination-calibre performances in both the Baz Luhrmann and Alejandro Amenábar pictures this year; as AMPAS rules dictate that an actor may not score multiple nominations in the same category, thereby effectively competing against him- or herself, Kidman was placed in the position of choosing which of the two performances she'd prefer to flog as her Oscar horse, lest she risk splitting her support across both turns and chance failing to make the final five altogether. I felt that Kidman ought to go with her performance in The Others, and ultimately concluded that she should publicly side with one or the other. (I've received several letters on this issue, with a majority agreeing that her The Others performance might have a better chance at netting her a first Oscar nomination.)

In a Liz Smith column this week (thanks to JMSTREEP for being the first to bring this to my attention), Kidman may have tipped her hand, musing: "It's a little like the impossibility of picking a favorite child. Moulin Rouge is getting a lot of attention, but in terms of acting, I think The Others is the one I put the most into. I was already filming Moulin Rouge with a lot of passion, and that carried over with me to The Others."

Does this indicate she's decided to side with The Others over Moulin Rouge? Are her comments sufficiently definitive, and will her respective campaigns align according to her sentiments? Time will tell.

Correction

Mr. Daniel Smith-Rowsey was kind enough to point out a factual error in the previous Oscar column. While I make it a rule of thumb to perform fact-checking on my own text before running with it (and even then the occasional error slips through), I hadn't really thought to fact-check mailbag letters, and hence a correspondent's incorrect assertion that nine of the past ten Best Picture grossed $100 million domestic before their wins went by unnoticed and unchallenged. Mr. Smith-Rowsey comments:

"This sort of money-over-quality trope is generally invoked by the cynical cinephile, but in this case, it's without foundation. Look at any records and the truth emerges that only 5 of the last 10 crossed the nine-digit mark prior to their AMPAS coronation, and in fact, one of those five, American Beauty, only passed the $100-million mark on the weekend before the Oscars. Had it not been for that last-minute dash, the Mendes film, along with Unforgiven, Schindler's List, Braveheart, The English Patient, and Shakespeare In Love, would have joined these five of the last ten Ultimate Winners to "fail" in this way."

Thanks for catching this.

Promo Trinket Update

Thanks also go to those who have responded to my call for ideas about silly promotional trinkets which could be sent out as part of a film's awards campaign -- please keep them coming. The operative word here, of course, is 'silly', so while, say, a set of rings would fit accordingly with The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring, that's a little bit more legitimate, realistic and tasteful than I'd been aiming for. So far, my favourite suggested promo trinket to date -- one which made me laugh aloud -- was Mike Lieberman's inspired suggestion that the Ghost World team send out copies of Bamboozled with an affixed sign reading "Found Art". In any case, I'll list some of the best ideas in a later column.

Oscar Host Reactions

Oh no.

Golden Globe Predictions

On a category-by-category basis, some quick predictions for the Golden Globes -- take them with a grain of salt, as I always find it difficult to figure out what (if anything) the Hollywood Foreign Press Association consider when casting their ballots:

Best Motion Picture - Drama
I do not see the HFPA going for Mulholland Dr., and that The Man Who Wasn't There even managed to snare a Golden Globe nominaton ought to be considered a victory of sorts. In The Bedroom is probably too small for the HFPA's tastes, so I expect the Globe to be a showdown between A Beautiful Mind and The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring. It's probably going to be a really tight race, but while the Ron Howard film is better positioned as an upscale prestige film vying for awards, if obliged to pick between the two of them, I'd think The Lord Of The Rings might take the Golden Globe due to its mainstream appeal, epic stature and huge current popularity.

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy
Needless to say, do not put money down on the obvious filler Legally Blonde. An interesting slate of nominees here -- going on the assumption that the HFPA will be reluctant to cite Bridget Jones's Diary (too slight) or Gosford Park (ostensibly austere), this might wind up being a battle between the anachronistic musical Moulin Rouge and the computer-animated Shrek. I'm torn between these two possibilities -- either of them could definitely take it -- and after much deliberation (read: coin flipping), will reluctantly predict Shrek to take this Globe over the Luhrmann film -- the HFPA have been far less reluctant than other groups to honour animated films, the film has been a huge crowdpleaser, and Moulin Rouge may very well pick up Globes in other categories, whereas this is the only slot in which the HFPA can acknowledge the DreamWorks blockbuster. Should the ogre movie indeed win this Golden Globe, it would have to be considered a real possibility to score double Oscar nominations in both the Best Animated Picture and Best Picture categories. Argh, I'm really torn in this category.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
This looks to be a contest between A Beautiful Mind's Russell Crowe and Training Day's Denzel Washington; stardom aside, I don't see any reason to expect Ali star Will Smith to capture a Golden Globe for his performance in the Michael Mann film, and The Shipping News' Kevin Spacey and Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There, look to be also-rans. Without the baggage of previous Globe wins -- his Gladiator Globe nomination was bested by Tom Hanks last year, and he was beaten two years ago by Washington's The Hurricane performance when up for The Insider -- I see a clear path for Crowe to likely take his first Globe for his work in the Ron Howard film.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
The slate of nominees in this category makes this difficult to call. Based on all of the previous accolades handed out to date, one would have to consider Sissy Spacek to be the obvious choice for her performance in In The Bedroom, but the HFPA do like Halle Berry, having acknowledged her performance in Introducing Dorothy Dandridge with a statuette, and The Others' Nicole Kidman is the biggest star in the quintet ... I'll have to go with Spacek to win, although a Kidman or Berry victory would not be a great surprise; Dench or Swinton taking the trophy, on the other hand, would be an eye-opener.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical
The pickings in this category are pretty slim. As the only nominee which seems to stand a remote chance at capturing an Oscar nomination, common sense dictates that The Royal Tenenbaums' Gene Hackman wpuld have to be considered the favourite in this year's Globe race, but I really question whether the characteristic quirkiness of the Wes Anderson picture is something that the HFPA would embrace; it doesn't seem to match their sensibilities. Instead, I'm going to go out on a limb (and, needless to say, take the risk of looking very, very foolish) and pick Moulin Rouge's Ewan McGregor as a surprise upset winner here.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical
This race clearly boils down to Bridget Jones's Diary's Renée Zellweger, a previous Globe winner last year for Nurse Betty, against Moulin Rouge's Nicole Kidman, who also won a Golden Globe in January 1996 for her performance in To Die For -- I would be stunned if Thora Birch, Cate Blanchett or Reese Witherspoon somehow walked away with this Globe. Among all of this year's acting categories, I feel the most confident about predicting Kidman as the likely winner of the Actress - Musical/Comedy trophy.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Gee, your guess is as good as mine. A Hayden Christensen win would probably be considered a huge shocker. On the basis of the momentum he's gathered to date via previous critics awards, I'll predict Sir Sexy Beast, Ben Kingsley, to win the Golden Globe, with Ali's Howard Cosell, Jon Voight, as my safety backup, but none of the six candidates particularly excites me or stands out as an obvious frontrunner.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
I expect the Gosford Park ladies to fare more successfully in Academy ballotting than with the HFPA. Look for A Beautiful Mind's Jennifer Connelly to add another statuette to her mantle in the wake up her AFI victory, although film star Cameron Diaz looks to be hot on her heels for her performance in Cameron Crowe's Vanilla Sky and could edge out a win. A Marisa Tomei victory for In The Bedroom would also not be wholly unexpected.

Best Director - Motion Picture
Hmm, tough category. Despite his status as the most famous movie director alive, Steven Spielberg's probably unlikely to win the Golden Globe for A.I. Artificial Inteligence, and despite its five nominations, I just don't foresee Gosford Park getting as much support from the HFPA as I expect it'll receive from the Academy, so Robert Altman may face an uphill battle with these voters, but there's certainly a good case to be made for any of the six nominees (except Spielberg) to take the Golden Globe. I'll predict New Zealander Peter Jackson to capture this statuette for his work on the massive The Lord Of The Rings project, with Ron Howard as my backup selection for his helming of the well-liked A Beautiful Mind.

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Another tough call here. I'm going to rule out the Coen brothers for their film noir riff, The Man Who Wasn't There, and deem David Lynch's script for Mulholland Dr. to be unlikely to score the statuette. Christopher Nolan's intricate, attention-grabbing and much-discussed screenplay for Memento would be my pick to win the statuette, but Akiva Goldsman (yes, that's the same writer behind the last two Batman films and A Time To Kill) has been scoring honours for his work on A Beautiful Mind and also ought to be considered a very strong candidate.

Best Foreign Language Film
My expectation is that the much-vaunted fluffy romantic comedy Amélie will beat out Danis Tanovic's No Man's Land to capture its first major trophy in this year's awards season. Sigh.

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Eight nominees? And I thought last year's six Golden Globe contenders in this category was verging on preposterousness. While the HFPA's taste in scores has traditonally diverged significantly from AMPAS preferences, I'll pick Howard Shore's music in The Lord of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring to beat out John Williams' A.I. Artificial Intelligence score and James Horner's A Beautiful Mind music to win this Golden Globe.

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
My guess is that the HFPA will throw Oscar prognosticators for a loop by taking the opportunity to go with the Academy Award nomination-ineligible "Come What May" from Moulin Rouge as their Best Original Song Globe winner. "May It Be" from The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring would be my alternate choice, and a Paul McCartney win for the title track of Vanilla Sky is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Cecil B. DeMille Award
I think Harrison Ford might win this.

To summarize:

Hmm, I'll probably be well off the mark with these Golden Globe predictions -- we'll see.

More to come in the next column....

Feedback or inquiries are welcome -- e-mail me. (Please indicate if you wish to remain anonymous; pseudonyms are also acceptable.)

Alex Fung (aw220@freenet.carleton.ca)

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